BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says bitcoin’s recent 52% crash from its October all-time high is flashing a critical warning signal — but the crypto could ultimately soar to new records once the Federal Reserve responds to an AI-driven banking crisis he believes is imminent.
In his latest essay, “This Is Fine,” Hayes argued that bitcoin’s divergence from traditional tech stocks reveals its role as the “global fiat liquidity fire alarm.” While the Nasdaq has remained relatively flat, bitcoin has plunged from $126,000 to its current $67,000, pricing in what Hayes describes as a massive credit destruction event that equity markets have yet to acknowledge.
“Bitcoin is the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply,” Hayes wrote. “The divergence recently between bitcoin and the Nasdaq sounds the alarm that a massive credit destruction event is nigh.”
Hayes models a scenario where artificial intelligence displaces just 20% of America’s 72.1 million knowledge workers, triggering approximately $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage defaults — about half the severity of the 2008 financial crisis. This AI-driven shock would devastate regional banks and force the Federal Reserve into “the biggest money printing in history,” he predicts.
“Deflation is bad, but ultimately good for fiat credit-sensitive assets like Bitcoin,” said Hayes. “First, the market prices the impact … Then … the monetary mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button harder than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump.”
Hayes noted gold’s recent gains, particularly against bitcoin, as another red flag, stating that “a surging gold versus a slumping Bitcoin clearly tells us that a deflationary risk-off credit event within Pax Americana is brewing.”
Hayes said that once the Fed intervenes with emergency liquidity measures — similar to the March 2023 response to regional bank failures — bitcoin will “pump decisively off its lows” and the expectation of sustained money printing will drive it to new all-time highs.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be more pain ahead for the foreseeable future, said Hayes. He warned bitcoin could fall further before the Fed acts, potentially breaking below $60,000 as political dysfunction delays the central bank’s response. Crypto investors, he advised, should stay liquid, avoid leverage, and “wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
