Analysis
St. John’s holds several key advantages, including experience, but rebounding is the true difference-maker. Rick Pitino’s squad ranks among the nation’s elite in offensive rebounding, recovering over 37% of their missed shots. Marquette sits near the bottom of the Big East in defensive rebounding—a recurring weakness. In their last matchup just a month ago, St. John’s dominated the glass and turned that hustle into a commanding 92–68 victory, fueled by a huge advantage in second-chance points. On average, St. John’s is statistically more likely to recover its own misses than Marquette is to secure the rebound. This edge can generate 12–15 additional scoring chances per game, equating to 14–18 points—enough to swing the outcome and cover this spread again. My model has Johnny -12.5 points.
